Pete Hegseth’s collapse is only a matter of time. 

Pete Hegseth is Trump’s Secretary of Defense. He will lead the Department of Defense (DoD). Two things are clear. First, he was chosen for his loyalty to Trump. Trump wants him to do what others failed to do when asked.  Trump wants a Secretary of Defense who will order troops to shoot American citizens. Second, he will collapse under the pressure of the role. He is mentally, emotionally, psychologically, and professionally unqualified. He has shown he has disordered appetites. These appetites will undo him.

Three flash points that will cause him to crumble. By crumble I mean indulge his disordered appetites to such a degree as to render him incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities.

The first is a crisis. Either an international or domestic crisis will cause him to crumble. Hegseth lacks the experience or knowledge of international or domestic law relating to the deployment of force to manage a crisis successfully. When he has to make a decision that will cost lives, Hegseth will be caught between Trump’s demands and what reality demands. He can accede to one or the other but not both. will cost him dearly. It is one thing to agree with Trump when there is no cost, it is another when he must disagree because the reality is not as Trump wants. 

The second is his inability to manage the DoD. He lacks the skill, knowledge and experience to lead it. There is no area where he is prepared, experienced, or trained to operate at a strategic level of the DoD. The DoD has a budget of over 800 million dollars, employs over 3 million people and oversees 750 military bases around the world.^[i] He showed he was not able to manage two small organisations. At these organisations, he is alleged to have abused his authority. He will be tempted at the DoD to abuse his power, especially with women who work for him.  Will he resist? Can he?

Third, his response to stress and pressure has been to turn to alcohol and pursue sexual liaisons. He claims he will not drink while Secretary of Defense. Can he resist? He will go to events hosted by friends as well as enemies where alcohol and women will be available to him. Will he be able to resist either in such situations? The gap between his capability and the external demands of his ego and Trump will cause him to indulge his disordered appetites. He will drink. He will womanise. He will mismanage. He will abuse his authority.

If he does not understand himself enough to realize that his disordered appetites make him unsuitable for the role it is because he lacks an inner moral compass to guide him. A better man who knew himself would have refused the role. Hegseth doesn’t understand himself. People will die because of his ignorance.

^[i] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/us/politics/pete-hegseth-workplace.html